# ECB left rates unchanged as Eurozone growth slipped below 1%

*Economics. 57% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Germany posted marginal Q3 growth and France avoided a credit downgrade on Sunday.**

The European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged on Friday, 30 October. The decision came as Eurozone gross domestic product for the third quarter was recorded at just under one percent. Germany's economy expanded only marginally and France avoided a credit downgrade on Sunday.

The Governing Council met on 30 October and opted against a 25-basis-point increase. By keeping rates on hold, the bank maintained the policy rate at its existing level. No change was implemented despite the prevailing slowdown.

Eurozone GDP growth for Q3 2026 was reported between 0.8% and 1.1%. This placed the region's expansion below the one-percent threshold. The figure reflected a deceleration from earlier quarters.

Germany's output in the same quarter grew between 1.0% and 1.2%. The modest rise indicated only marginal expansion. The data were released on 30 October.

Credit rating agencies did not downgrade France on Sunday, 1 November. France's sovereign rating therefore stayed at its previous level.

## Analysis

With inflation still above target, policymakers may view the pause as a way to assess how the economy reacts before resuming hikes.

Weak output limits fiscal space for member states and raises concerns about meeting convergence criteria. The slowdown also reduces the buffer that central banks have when calibrating monetary policy.

However, the rating agencies' decision leaves the country vulnerable should economic conditions deteriorate further. Investors will likely continue to monitor French fiscal and growth indicators closely.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [ECB Interest Rate Decision: October 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlate](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/ecb-interest-rate-decision-october-2026/)
- [IMF expects at least one more 25 bps ECB rate hike in 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/imf-expects-least-one-more-25-bps-ecb-rate-hike-2026-2026-10-16/)
- [ECB Will Probably Have to Hike Interest Rates Again, Wunsch Says - Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14/ecb-will-probably-have-to-hike-interest-rates-again-wunsch-says)
- [ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 — Prediction Market Odds & Charts | GoCharting](https://gocharting.com/markets/predictions-market/743554)

## What this was built from

- **ECB Interest Rates: October 2026**: No change, 98%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778)
- **Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026**: 0.8-1.1%, 72%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/eurozone-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026)
- **Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?**: 1.0-1.2%, 57%; settles Friday, 30 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/germany-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026)
- **Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt)