# AfD topped Saxony-Anhalt vote with just over 40%, no majority *Politics. 39% certain. Monday, 7 September 2026* > Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened. **SPD cleared the 5% threshold and out-polled the Greens.** The AfD emerged as the largest party in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, securing just over 40% of the vote. It fell short of an absolute majority in the Landtag. Coalition negotiations consequently positioned Sven Schulze as the next Ministerpräsident. The Social Democratic Party cleared the 5% threshold required for Parliamentary representation. It received more votes than the Greens in the election. This positioned the SPD as the second-largest force in the parliament. The Greens also passed the 5% threshold, securing representation in the Landtag. Their vote share placed them behind the SPD but above the entry barrier. Their presence adds another party to potential coalition talks. The BSW obtained between three and five percent of the vote. This placed the party below the 5% line but above three percent, reflecting modest support. Its share did not qualify it for Parliamentary seats. With the AfD lacking a majority, the formation of a coalition became necessary to command a governing majority. Discussions among the SPD, Greens and other parties identified Sven Schulze as the preferred candidate for Ministerpräsident. The appointment signaled the likely composition of the incoming government. ## Analysis The election results left the AfD as the clear frontrunner but without enough seats to govern alone, forcing it into coalition talks. The SPD's clearance of the 5% threshold and its position ahead of the Greens ensure it remains a key player in any coalition. Its relative strength compared to the Greens gives it leverage in negotiating policy priorities and cabinet posts. The Greens' entry into the Landtag, also above the 5% barrier, expands the pool of potential partners and introduces environmental and progressive issues into coalition deliberations. The BSW's 3-5% share, though insufficient for seats, indicates a measurable level of voter support that could affect future strategic calculations for larger parties seeking to attract its electorate. ## What this was built from - **SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 95%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/spd-above-5-in-2026-saxonyanhalt-st) - **Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026**: No, 76%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/NFNL2zc/will-the-afd-win-an-absolute-majori) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?**: 5-7%, 66%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-vote-share) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?**: 7-9%, 54%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-spd-vote-share) - **Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 79%; settles Monday, 7 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-the-afd-win-more-than-40-of-th) - **Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?**: Sven Schulze, 74%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-ministerprasident-of-sachsen-anhalt-20260806155819619) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?**: 20-23%, 43%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-cdu-vote-share) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?**: 9-12%, 57%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-linke-vote-share) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?**: 42-45%, 39%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-vote-share) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?**: Under, 52%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-afd-over-under-42-percent) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?**: Over, 80%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-over-under-5-percent) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?**: 3-5%, 68%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-bsw-vote-share) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?**: Under, 65%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-linke-over-under-12-percent) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?**: Under, 56%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-cdu-over-under-23-percent) - **Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?**: did not happen, 85%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/238706/will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-landtag-election) - **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?**: SPD, 81%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-more-votes-to-spd-or-grune)