World
Iranian blockade persisted through September
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal and the East-West Pipeline stayed offline at month-end.
On Thursday, shipping disruptions persisted in two key chokepoints. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had not returned to normal by the end of September, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not effectively closed. Meanwhile, the Iranian blockade remained in place and Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline stayed shut at month-end. The situation continued to affect global Oil flows.
Vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz reported irregular schedules and reduced volumes, confirming that traffic levels fell short of pre-disruption norms. Iranian authorities maintained control over the passage, and no change was recorded through September 30. Shipping firms cited the ongoing blockade as a primary factor in the continued irregularities.
Iranian forces also kept control of Kharg Island through the reporting period. The Island, a strategic Oil export hub, remained under Tehran's authority as of September 30. No handover or loss of control was reported.
In the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not declared effectively closed by the end of September. While some vessels continued to transit the waterway, the lack of a full closure indicated lingering operational challenges. The Strait's status reflected ongoing regional tensions affecting maritime routes.
The United States did not announce an end to the Iranian blockade by the September deadline, and Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline remained non-operational at month-end. The Pipeline, which links the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, stayed offline, limiting Saudi export flexibility.
Analysis
Because the blockade has not been lifted, insurers and shippers must continue to factor heightened risk into their calculations, which can dampen trade volumes.
Reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that handles a sizable share of world Oil trade, limits the flow of crude to refining hubs outside the region. The shortfall in normal traffic volumes forces carriers to seek alternative routes, such as the longer journey around Africa, increasing transit times and fuel consumption.
Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline provides a strategic alternative to maritime routes, allowing Oil to bypass the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb. Its continued shutdown forces the kingdom to rely more heavily on tanker shipments through contested waters, reducing its logistical flexibility and potentially exposing it to further geopolitical risks.
Although the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not declared effectively closed, the fact that it remains only partially operational signals ongoing instability in the Red Sea corridor. Persistent tensions in the area can disrupt the flow of goods beyond Oil, affecting broader trade patterns and prompting regional actors to maintain heightened naval presences.
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