AHEAD OF PRINT

The week ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 7 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 14 September 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 7 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within seven days — by Monday, 14 September 2026.

Politics

Chris Pappas won New Hampshire Senate primary

Maura Sullivan secured the 1st district House nomination and Anthony DiLorenzo claimed the GOP gubernatorial slot.

78% certain
lead market 78%next 24%1 venuesettles Tue 8 Sept5 markets behind this

New Hampshire held its primary elections on Tuesday, September 8. Democrats chose Chris Pappas as their senate nominee. Maura Sullivan secured the Democratic nomination for the 1st Congressional District, while Anthony DiLorenzo won the Republican contest for governor.

Pappas defeated Karishma Manzur by a Margin estimated between 15 and 20 percentage points. The result was larger than a narrow Victory but smaller than a landslide.

Sullivan prevailed over Stefany Shaheen and Carleigh Beriont. The 1st district covers the seacoast and western parts of the state. She secured the nomination with a clear plurality.

DiLorenzo defeated Hollie Noveletsky and Elizabeth Girard. The Republican primary saw a three-candidate field. His Victory positioned him as the GOP's choice for the upcoming gubernatorial race.

With the Tuesday primaries concluded, New Hampshire's party tickets are set for the November ballot. Both parties now turn to their general election strategies.

Analysis

The Margin suggests solid support among primary voters, but the exact level of enthusiasm for the general electorate remains uncertain, especially given the state's swing tendencies.

Sullivan's nomination in the 1st district adds a fresh face to the Democratic bench, potentially altering the district's competitive dynamics.

DiLorenzo emerging as the GOP's gubernatorial pick consolidates the Republican field after a three-candidate contest, giving the party a clear focal point for fundraising and messaging. However, his Victory does not guarantee unity, as the defeated candidates' supporters may still hold sway, and the general election will test his appeal across the state's broader electorate.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes, 92% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas, 96% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Maura Sullivan, 81% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
NH-01 Republican Primary Winner: Anthony DiLorenzo, 78% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory: Pappas 15–20%, 78% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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