AHEAD OF PRINT

The week ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 12 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 19 September 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 12 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within seven days — by Saturday, 19 September 2026.

Economics

Fed raised rates by 25 basis points unanimously

Alongside the Fed move, Brazil cut its Selic by 25 bps and Japan raised its policy rate by 25 bps.

26% certain
lead market 26%next 22%1 venuesettles Wed 16 Sept9 markets behind this

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted its target rate by a quarter percentage point. The adjustment arrived as Brazil's central Bank trimmed its benchmark Selic rate by the same amount the day before. Japan's monetary authority completed the triad of moves by raising its policy rate by 25 basis points on Friday.

The Fed's decision was unanimous, with all members voting in favor of the increase. No dissenting votes were recorded at the September 16 meeting. The 25-basis-point hike added to the Fed's tightening stance for the year.

The September action followed a series of policy changes between June and September that diverged from earlier pauses. Those earlier meetings had produced a pattern classified as "Other" rather than simple holds or cuts. The latest increase therefore signaled a continuation of a more aggressive stance.

Brazil's monetary policy committee convened on Tuesday, September 15, and voted to lower the Selic rate by 25 basis points. The cut aimed to provide modest stimulus to the Brazilian economy amid slowing growth. The decision was announced alongside a modest adjustment to the Bank's outlook for inflation.

The Bank of Japan met on Friday, September 18, and raised its short-term policy rate by a quarter percentage point. The move aligned Japan with the broader global trend of modest tightening.

Analysis

While the Fed and BoJ responded to inflationary concerns, Brazil pursued stimulus as growth slowed.

Investors may also adjust portfolio allocations toward assets denominated in the higher-rate currencies.

In the United States, the additional 25-basis-point hike tightens monetary conditions further, supporting the Fed's objective of anchoring inflation but raising borrowing costs for households and businesses. Brazil's rate cut reduces financing costs, potentially bolstering domestic consumption but also risking a modest uptick in price pressures. Japan's modest increase ends a long period of ultra-low rates, which could strengthen the yen and temper export margins.

The durability of these policy paths remains uncertain.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase, 78% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other, 79% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes, 70% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes, 85% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No, 99% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase, 73% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?: 0, 26% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Brazil Selic rate decision — September 2026 COPOM meeting: 25 bps decrease, 93% settles Tuesday, 15 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
Bank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase, 95% settles Friday, 18 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
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