70%Valentin Vacherot upsets Stefanos Tsitsipas at Japan Open95%The Life of a Showgirl: the Encore topped Billboard 20044%Ayatollah Khamenei posted fewer than five messages last week88%Bolsonaro emerged favored as Lula lost presidential election64%Tarcísio de Freitas re-Elected as São Paulo governor63%PL took Chamber majority in 2026 elections

AHEAD OF PRINT

The week ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 2 October 2026
Edition of Friday, 9 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 2 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within seven days — by Friday, 9 October 2026.

Sports

Valentin Vacherot upsets Stefanos Tsitsipas at Japan Open

Liudmila Samsonova also advanced by beating Linda Fruhvirtova at the China Open.

70% certain
lead market 70%next 30%1 venuesettles Fri 9 Oct

On Friday, Asian hard-court events produced a string of unexpected results. The same day lower-ranked competitors also overcame higher seeds in Beijing and Jingshan.

Vacherot entered the Japan Open draw without a seed and faced world-ranked Tsitsipas in the early round. He prevailed, eliminating the Greek star from the tournament. The win sent Vacherot into the next stage while Tsitsipas bowed out.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 200-21944%Fri 2 Oct
  2. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  3. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)85%Sun 4 Oct
  4. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo99%Mon 5 Oct
  5. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: Valentin Vacherot100%Fri 9 Oct
  6. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis83%Mon 5 Oct
  7. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes70%Mon 5 Oct
  8. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas100%Mon 5 Oct
  9. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues64%Mon 5 Oct
  10. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco85%Mon 5 Oct
  11. China Open: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Liudmila Samsonova: Liudmila Samsonova100%Fri 9 Oct
  12. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite67%Mon 5 Oct
  13. Pernambuco Governor Election Winner: João Campos70%Mon 5 Oct
  14. Piauí Governor Election Winner: Rafael Fonteles99%Mon 5 Oct
  15. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL66%Mon 5 Oct
  16. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello100%Mon 5 Oct
  17. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado63%Mon 5 Oct
  18. Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place: Rui Costa91%Mon 5 Oct
  19. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Deltan Dallagnol73%Mon 5 Oct
  20. Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026: Elmano de Freitas72%Sun 4 Oct
  21. Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?: No90%Sun 4 Oct
  22. #2 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 2): Cleveland! - Taylor Swift99%Fri 2 Oct
  23. Jingshan: Aliona Falei vs Sara Sorribes Tormo: Aliona Falei98%Fri 9 Oct
  24. Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?: No98%Sun 4 Oct
  25. Lula participates in debate before first round?: No99%Sat 3 Oct
  26. China Open: Alex Molcan vs Karen Khachanov: Karen Khachanov96%Fri 9 Oct
  27. China Open: Taylah Preston vs Diane Parry: Diane Parry70%Fri 9 Oct
  28. Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5?: Bolsonaro90%Mon 5 Oct
  29. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?: Yes95%Sat 3 Oct
  30. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026?: 200+51%Tue 6 Oct
  31. Will a new scandal emerge involving Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the first round elections in 2026?: No88%Sat 3 Oct
  32. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k?: No99%Sat 3 Oct
  33. Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 10: Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley95%Wed 7 Oct
  34. Khamenei # posts September 25 - October 2, 2026?: <595%Fri 2 Oct
  35. Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 10: The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore97%Wed 7 Oct
  36. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Mon 5 Oct
  37. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No61%Sat 3 Oct
  38. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro75%Mon 5 Oct
  39. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  40. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No95%Fri 2 Oct
  41. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No98%Tue 6 Oct
  42. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  43. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 2?: Yes90%Fri 2 Oct
  44. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos60%Mon 5 Oct
  45. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Fri 2 Oct
  46. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No66%Sat 3 Oct
  47. Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days: No94%Mon 5 Oct
  48. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ97%Tue 6 Oct
  49. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Mon 5 Oct
  50. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026?: Yes51%Sat 3 Oct
  51. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No97%Mon 5 Oct
  52. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula73%Mon 5 Oct
  53. Will random.org pick 100,000?: No99%Tue 6 Oct
  54. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3000 or more on October 5 2026?: Yes98%Mon 5 Oct
  55. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%56%Mon 5 Oct
  56. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No76%Sat 3 Oct
  57. Will Tesla announce on October 1, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  58. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4200 or more on October 5 2026?: No91%Sun 4 Oct
  59. Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4?: No90%Mon 5 Oct
  60. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No95%Mon 5 Oct
  61. Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?: Yes93%Mon 5 Oct
  62. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon96%Tue 6 Oct
  63. Spain vs. Czechia: Spain83%Sat 3 Oct
  64. France vs. Italy: France72%Fri 2 Oct
  65. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga86%Mon 5 Oct
  66. Belgium vs. Türkiye: Belgium72%Fri 2 Oct
  67. Will Calvin Wang submit the 21W.023 Discussion Post Homework on time? (Writing Advice from Stephen King): Yes86%Wed 7 Oct
  68. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas71%Mon 5 Oct
  69. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS98%Sun 4 Oct
  70. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro82%Mon 5 Oct
  71. US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.3000 or more on October 5 2026?: Yes94%Mon 5 Oct
  72. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+88%Sun 4 Oct
  73. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%44%Sun 4 Oct
  74. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes99%Mon 5 Oct
  75. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  76. Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?: No97%Sun 4 Oct
  77. Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B: Global Esports72%Fri 2 Oct
  78. Argentina vs. Burkina Faso: Argentina83%Sat 3 Oct
  79. # of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?: 30–35M82%Sat 3 Oct
  80. Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: Korea Republic74%Fri 2 Oct
  81. Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?: No99%Fri 2 Oct
  82. Spread: Colts (-3.5): Colts53%Sun 4 Oct
  83. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 177%Sun 4 Oct
  84. Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?: Up74%Fri 2 Oct
  85. Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?: No62%Fri 9 Oct
  86. LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea - Game 2 Winner: South Korea91%Fri 2 Oct
  87. Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Vancouver Whitecaps FC60%Wed 7 Oct
  88. Croatia vs. England: England69%Sat 3 Oct
  89. Colts vs. Commanders: Colts66%Sun 4 Oct
  90. Will "Digger" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend: No95%Mon 5 Oct
  91. Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00: Yes99%Mon 5 Oct
  92. NFL Week 4: Will the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the Los Angeles Rams by 3 or more points in Week 4?: No67%Sun 4 Oct
  93. Will Labour win the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: Yes83%Thu 8 Oct
  94. Rams vs. Eagles: Rams61%Sun 4 Oct
  95. LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea (BO5) - Asian Games Playoffs: South Korea99%Fri 2 Oct
  96. Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2: Mayweather51%Sun 4 Oct
  97. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Oct 4 UTC-12?: No87%Sun 4 Oct
  98. Bitcoin price on October 2?: 86,000-88,00045%Fri 2 Oct
  99. Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage: PARIVISION55%Sat 3 Oct
  100. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m97%Sun 4 Oct
  101. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 2?: Yes90%Fri 2 Oct
  102. LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: T1 Academy64%Fri 2 Oct
  103. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 2?: No95%Fri 2 Oct
  104. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais: Lula72%Mon 5 Oct
  105. Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  106. Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE): No86%Thu 8 Oct
  107. Netherlands vs. Serbia: Netherlands82%Sun 4 Oct
  108. Will our Steam game Heartseeker surpass 1000 sales by Oct 5th 2026 (5th anniversary of release)?: No90%Tue 6 Oct
  109. Spread: Lions (-3.5): Lions51%Mon 5 Oct
  110. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL95%Mon 5 Oct
  111. Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  112. Paraíba Governor Election Winner: Lucas Ribeiro98%Mon 5 Oct
  113. Will I get a 43+ predicted IB score?: Yes64%Sun 4 Oct
  114. Will I find someone from Manifold Markets to do flat viewings for me in London?: No88%Wed 7 Oct
  115. Amazonas Senate Election: 1st Place: Eduardo Braga89%Mon 5 Oct
  116. Spread: Bills (-6.5): Bills55%Sun 4 Oct
  117. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 2?: No82%Fri 2 Oct
  118. Will this market close below 50%?: Yes50%Mon 5 Oct
  119. Maranhão Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Braide90%Mon 5 Oct
  120. Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place: Jaques Wagner75%Mon 5 Oct
  121. Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place: Carlos Jordy53%Mon 5 Oct
  122. Will Python 3.10 reach 90% readiness before end of life?: No98%Sun 4 Oct
  123. Quebec General Election: Second Place: PLQ97%Tue 6 Oct
  124. # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?: 35–40M28%Tue 6 Oct
  125. Pará Governor Election Winner: Hana Ghassan60%Mon 5 Oct
  126. Elected Senators for Ceará in 2026: Cid Gomes52%Sun 4 Oct
  127. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 2?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  128. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District: Flavio Bolsonaro96%Mon 5 Oct
  129. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 2?: Yes97%Fri 2 Oct
  130. Italy vs. Türkiye: Italy58%Mon 5 Oct
  131. Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 2?: 23°C79%Fri 2 Oct
  132. Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place: Rayssa Furlan84%Mon 5 Oct
  133. LoL: Team Vitality vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage: BNK FEARX70%Sat 3 Oct
  134. Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 2?: 31°C72%Fri 2 Oct
  135. Spread: Rams (-3.5): Eagles53%Sun 4 Oct
  136. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office: 28m+85%Sun 4 Oct
  137. India vs. Brazil: Brazil84%Sat 3 Oct
  138. Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place: Carol de Toni69%Mon 5 Oct
  139. Cowboys vs. Texans: Texans60%Sun 4 Oct
  140. Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place: Marília Arraes76%Mon 5 Oct
  141. Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 9, 2026? (Closes early): No51%Fri 9 Oct
  142. Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 September 28-October 4?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  143. Elected Senators for Rio de Janeiro in 2026: Carlos Jordy (PL)29%Sun 4 Oct
  144. Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 September 28-October 4?: No94%Mon 5 Oct
  145. Kentucky vs. South Carolina: South Carolina59%Sat 3 Oct
  146. Tunisia vs. Mali: Draw (Tunisia vs. Mali)73%Sat 3 Oct
  147. Mato Grosso Senate Election: 1st Place: Mauro Mendes91%Mon 5 Oct
  148. Will Brazil approve Daniel Perez as U.S. ambassador before its 2026 presidential election?: No89%Sat 3 Oct
  149. Goiás Senate Election: 2nd Place: Gustavo Gayer59%Mon 5 Oct
  150. Brazil 2026 Election: Will the U.S. impose new Global Magnitsky sanctions on a Brazilian before the elections?: No86%Sat 3 Oct
  151. Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on October 2?: No98%Fri 2 Oct
  152. Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place: Cid Gomes68%Mon 5 Oct
  153. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  154. Greece vs. Germany: Germany59%Sun 4 Oct
  155. Mato Grosso Senate Election: 2nd Place: Janaina Riva74%Mon 5 Oct
  156. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?: did not happen54%Sun 4 Oct
  157. Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5: Under53%Sun 4 Oct
  158. Portugal vs. Norway: Portugal62%Sun 4 Oct
  159. Paraíba Senate Election: 2nd Place: Veneziano58%Mon 5 Oct
  160. Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?: No75%Fri 2 Oct
  161. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins: Lula58%Mon 5 Oct
  162. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 2?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  163. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?: 44%+64%Sun 4 Oct
  164. Alagoas Senate Election: 1st Place: Arthur Lira66%Mon 5 Oct
  165. Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 28-October 4?: No96%Mon 5 Oct
  166. Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by October 3164%Mon 5 Oct
  167. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?: Yes59%Fri 2 Oct
  168. Elected Senators for Minas Gerais in 2026: Marília Campos32%Sun 4 Oct
  169. Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5: Over56%Mon 5 Oct
  170. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 2?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  171. Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place: Manuela D'Ávila74%Mon 5 Oct
  172. Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?: 36-3984%Tue 6 Oct
  173. Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 2?: 24°C66%Fri 2 Oct
  174. Spread: Wake Forest (-13.5): Wake Forest53%Sat 3 Oct
  175. Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A: LGD Gaming67%Fri 2 Oct
  176. Will Ethereum reach $3,100 September 28-October 4?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  177. Amazonas Governor Election Winner: Omar Aziz85%Mon 5 Oct
  178. Elected governor for Rio Grande do Sul in 2026: Luciano Zucco71%Sun 4 Oct
  179. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pará: Lula97%Mon 5 Oct
  180. September Unemployment Rate: 4.1%36%Fri 2 Oct
  181. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place: did not happen51%Mon 5 Oct
  182. Elected Senators for Alagoas in 2026: Arthur Lira32%Sun 4 Oct
  183. Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 September 28-October 4?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  184. Paraíba Senate Election: 1st Place: Joao Azevêdo92%Mon 5 Oct
  185. O/U 1.5 Rounds: Under58%Sun 4 Oct
  186. Jaguars vs. Bengals: Bengals59%Sun 4 Oct
  187. Cardinals vs. Giants: Cardinals56%Sun 4 Oct
  188. Elected Governor of Rio de Janeiro in 2026: Eduardo Paes70%Sun 4 Oct
  189. Patriots vs. Bills: Bills64%Sun 4 Oct
  190. Next Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?: did not happen82%Mon 5 Oct
  191. Pará Senate Election: 1st Place: Helder88%Mon 5 Oct
  192. Highest temperature in Shenzhen on October 2?: 30°C59%Fri 2 Oct
  193. Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever?: Yes73%Mon 5 Oct
  194. Elected Governor of São Paulo in 2026: Tarcísio de Freitas94%Sun 4 Oct
  195. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul: Flavio Bolsonaro97%Mon 5 Oct
  196. Will Kylian Mbappe score a hattrick in this international window for France?: No68%Mon 5 Oct
  197. China Open: Sara Bejlek vs Maddison Inglis: Sara Bejlek75%Fri 9 Oct
  198. Federal District Governor Election Winner: Celina Leão97%Mon 5 Oct
  199. Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?: No90%Thu 8 Oct
  200. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No72%Thu 8 Oct
  201. Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 2?: 22°C72%Fri 2 Oct
  202. Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage: G254%Sat 3 Oct
  203. Elected Senators for São Paulo in 2026: Guilherme Derrite39%Sun 4 Oct
  204. Elected Senators for Rio Grande do Sul in 2026: Marcel van Hattem42%Sun 4 Oct
  205. Quebec General Election: Third Place: PCQ90%Tue 6 Oct
  206. Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place: did not happen69%Mon 5 Oct
  207. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia: Flavio Bolsonaro99%Mon 5 Oct
  208. Chiefs vs. Raiders: Chiefs61%Sun 4 Oct
  209. China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta: Daniil Medvedev82%Thu 8 Oct
  210. Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 2?: 32°C70%Fri 2 Oct
  211. Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland: Ukraine68%Fri 2 Oct
  212. Spread: Italy (-1.5): France96%Fri 2 Oct
  213. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place: Marília Campos81%Mon 5 Oct
  214. Ethereum Up or Down on October 2?: Up80%Fri 2 Oct
  215. North Macedonia vs. Scotland: Scotland66%Sat 3 Oct
  216. Highest temperature in Singapore on October 2?: 33°C59%Fri 2 Oct
  217. Will the price of Solana be above $95 on October 7?: Yes82%Wed 7 Oct
  218. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Augusto Cury Vote Share?: 2-4%58%Sun 4 Oct
  219. Will "Digger" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No88%Mon 5 Oct
  220. Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?: Yes64%Mon 5 Oct
  221. Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams?: Yes50%Fri 2 Oct
  222. Highest temperature in London on October 2?: 21°C54%Fri 2 Oct
  223. LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage: HANJIN BRION56%Sat 3 Oct
  224. Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner : Ricardo Ferraço57%Mon 5 Oct
  225. Highest temperature in Munich on October 2?: 19°C39%Fri 2 Oct
  226. Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place: did not happen55%Mon 5 Oct
  227. Paraná Senate Election: 2nd Place: did not happen52%Mon 5 Oct
  228. Acre Senate Election: 1st Place: did not happen76%Mon 5 Oct
  229. Spread: Spain (-2.5): Spain63%Sat 3 Oct
  230. Ethereum price on October 2?: 2,700-2,80051%Fri 2 Oct
  231. Wales vs. Denmark: did not happen49%Sun 4 Oct
  232. Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?: Yes94%Tue 6 Oct
  233. Reserve Bank of India decision in October: 25 bps increase82%Wed 7 Oct
  234. Will Ethereum reach $3,200 September 28-October 4?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  235. Pará Senate Election: 2nd Place: Delegado Éder Mauro55%Mon 5 Oct
  236. LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner: T1 Academy56%Fri 2 Oct
  237. Brazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%?: Yes78%Sun 4 Oct
  238. Republic of Ireland vs. Israel: Republic of Ireland58%Sun 4 Oct
  239. China Open: Completed Match: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Liudmila Samsonova: Yes100%Fri 9 Oct
  240. Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 2?: 21°C56%Fri 2 Oct
  241. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Ceará: Lula99%Mon 5 Oct
  242. Roraima Senate Election: 1st Place: did not happen73%Mon 5 Oct
  243. Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET: Up80%Fri 2 Oct
  244. Highest temperature in Wellington on October 2?: 15°C68%Fri 2 Oct
  245. Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5): GamerLegion53%Fri 2 Oct
  246. Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place: did not happen97%Mon 5 Oct
  247. Counter-Strike: NIP vs SportsBetExpert (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B: NIP83%Fri 2 Oct
  248. Latvia vs. Montenegro: Montenegro66%Fri 2 Oct
  249. Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 28-October 4?: No81%Mon 5 Oct
  250. Will my human @marbinner place top-3 in Phase 1 of the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026: No54%Fri 2 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within seven days, then reported as though they already had.