39%Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil's presidency in narrow runoff31%Elon Musk posted 340-359 tweets in mid-October35%Intuitive Surgical posted up to 15% da Vinci procedure growth in Q396%Animals topped US Netflix movie chart this week74%Alberta voters rejected Independence Referendum

AHEAD OF PRINT

The week ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 19 October 2026
Edition of Monday, 26 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 19 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within seven days — by Monday, 26 October 2026.

Politics

Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil's presidency in narrow runoff

Turnout reached roughly 79%, and former U.S. president Donald Trump endorsed Bolsonaro.

39% certain
lead market 39%next 29%1 venuesettles Mon 26 Oct

Flávio Bolsonaro was declared Brazil's president-Elect after the Second-round vote on Sunday. He secured Victory by a Margin of less than four percent over incumbent Luiz in Lula. Voter participation hovered between 78 and 80 percent, and the result followed public endorsement from former U.S. president Donald Trump.

In the Federal District, Bolsonaro finished first, outpacing Lula in the capital's electorate. The win in Brasília contributed to his overall narrow lead. The district's result reflected the broader urban swing toward the challenger.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Flávio Bolsonaro <4%39%Mon 26 Oct
  2. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro71%Sun 25 Oct
  3. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: No99%Tue 20 Oct
  4. Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 340-35935%Tue 20 Oct
  5. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá: Flavio Bolsonaro77%Mon 26 Oct
  6. Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory: Remain 40–60%77%Tue 20 Oct
  7. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas: Lula61%Mon 26 Oct
  8. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará: Lula82%Mon 26 Oct
  9. Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?: Flávio Bolsonaro96%Mon 26 Oct
  10. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais: Flavio Bolsonaro92%Mon 26 Oct
  11. Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 140-15933%Tue 20 Oct
  12. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout: 78-80%56%Mon 26 Oct
  13. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No74%Mon 19 Oct
  14. What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (October 20): Love Is Blind: Boston96%Wed 21 Oct
  15. What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (October 20): East of Eden: Limited Series99%Wed 21 Oct
  16. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth?: 12.5% to 15%76%Tue 20 Oct
  17. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Alagoas: Lula97%Mon 26 Oct
  18. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Federal District: Flavio Bolsonaro99%Mon 26 Oct
  19. CZ # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?: 20-3972%Fri 23 Oct
  20. Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 160-17931%Tue 20 Oct
  21. United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor?: 84% to 85%70%Tue 20 Oct
  22. What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 20): Doing Life96%Wed 21 Oct
  23. Zelenskyy # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: 80-9958%Tue 20 Oct
  24. Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?: <589%Fri 23 Oct
  25. Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 organic sales growth?: 1.5% to 2.5%35%Thu 22 Oct
  26. Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q3 adjusted revenue be above $13.6B?: No71%Tue 20 Oct
  27. What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? (October 20): Animals99%Wed 21 Oct
  28. What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (October 20): Doing Life99%Wed 21 Oct
  29. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth?: 6% to 8%63%Wed 21 Oct
  30. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić70%Sun 25 Oct
  31. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia68%Sun 25 Oct
  32. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova88%Mon 26 Oct
  33. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 19?: Yes92%Mon 19 Oct
  34. # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?: 60-80M64%Fri 23 Oct
  35. Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?: No100%Thu 22 Oct
  36. Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona67%Tue 20 Oct
  37. NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?: No100%Fri 23 Oct
  38. Bank of Russia decision in October?: No Change90%Sat 24 Oct
  39. Ningbo Open: Elise Mertens vs Leylah Fernandez: Elise Mertens67%Mon 26 Oct
  40. Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs magic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs: PARIVISION60%Tue 20 Oct
  41. Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC75%Mon 19 Oct
  42. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change93%Wed 21 Oct
  43. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad: Lula66%Mon 26 Oct
  44. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 193%Sun 25 Oct
  45. Next Premier of British Columbia: Lorne Doerkson78%Sat 24 Oct
  46. Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5: Over61%Tue 20 Oct
  47. Bitcoin price on October 19?: 82,000-84,00075%Mon 19 Oct
  48. Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?: Yes84%Wed 21 Oct
  49. Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Iotova 20-30%51%Sun 25 Oct
  50. Counter-Strike: Alliance vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs: TheMongolz61%Mon 19 Oct
  51. Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club63%Wed 21 Oct
  52. Japan Women's Open: Talia Gibson vs Harriet Dart: Talia Gibson62%Mon 26 Oct
  53. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 19?: Yes91%Mon 19 Oct
  54. Ethereum price on October 19?: 2,400-2,50066%Mon 19 Oct
  55. FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United SC: FC Cincinnati73%Wed 21 Oct
  56. Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?: Up92%Mon 19 Oct
  57. Manchester City FC vs. AEK: Manchester City FC82%Tue 20 Oct
  58. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?: October 2030%Tue 20 Oct
  59. Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5: Under64%Mon 26 Oct
  60. Best AI model on October 19?: gemini-4-argon-high87%Tue 20 Oct
  61. Spread: 49ers (-3.5): 49ers60%Tue 20 Oct
  62. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 19?: Yes99%Mon 19 Oct
  63. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on October 19?: Yes99%Mon 19 Oct
  64. British Columbia General Election Winner: Conservative89%Sat 24 Oct
  65. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 19?: No80%Mon 19 Oct
  66. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 19?: Yes97%Mon 19 Oct
  67. OpenAI resumes training on...?: Not resumed by October 2096%Wed 21 Oct
  68. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%98%Wed 21 Oct
  69. Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?: Yes66%Mon 19 Oct
  70. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 19?: Yes66%Mon 19 Oct
  71. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 19?: No94%Mon 19 Oct
  72. Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?: Yes77%Wed 21 Oct
  73. Guangzhou: Omar Jasika vs Koki Matsuda: Koki Matsuda100%Mon 26 Oct
  74. FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: FC Barcelona66%Sun 25 Oct
  75. #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?: OpenAI99%Tue 20 Oct
  76. FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: FC Bayern München46%Wed 21 Oct
  77. Japan Women's Open: Sonay Kartal vs Kimberly Birrell: Sonay Kartal51%Mon 26 Oct
  78. Ethereum Up or Down on October 19?: Up90%Mon 19 Oct
  79. Prešov Mayoral Election Winner: František Oľha95%Sun 25 Oct
  80. Nitra Mayoral Election Winner: Marek Hattas91%Sun 25 Oct
  81. Highest temperature in Wellington on October 19?: 17°C70%Mon 19 Oct
  82. Solana price on October 20?: 100-11094%Tue 20 Oct
  83. Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes94%Mon 19 Oct
  84. Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 19?: 17°C59%Mon 19 Oct
  85. Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?: 40-45%27%Sun 25 Oct
  86. Bank of Korea decision in October?: No Change96%Thu 22 Oct
  87. UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card): Petr Yan60%Sun 25 Oct
  88. Highest temperature in Beijing on October 19?: 20°C61%Mon 19 Oct
  89. Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 19?: 27°C65%Mon 19 Oct
  90. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?: did not happen79%Sun 25 Oct
  91. Will Apple release a foldable phone before 2028?: Yes99%Sat 24 Oct
  92. Poprad Mayoral Election Winner: Anton Danko83%Sun 25 Oct
  93. LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage: Anyone's Legend67%Sat 24 Oct
  94. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 19?: No99%Mon 19 Oct
  95. Žilina Region Governor Election Winner: Erika Jurinová94%Sun 25 Oct
  96. Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin?: 32% to 34%66%Tue 20 Oct
  97. Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 19?: 25°C63%Mon 19 Oct
  98. Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 19?: 18°C72%Mon 19 Oct
  99. VfB Stuttgart vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Club Atlético de Madrid62%Tue 20 Oct
  100. Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF: Liverpool FC63%Tue 20 Oct
  101. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?: Yes81%Tue 20 Oct
  102. OpenRouter AI token usage Sep 28 to Oct 25?: 625-675T59%Mon 26 Oct
  103. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No88%Wed 21 Oct
  104. Paris curfew by October 24?: No96%Sun 25 Oct
  105. Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round Winner: Iliana Iotova97%Sun 25 Oct
  106. Trnava Mayoral Election Winner: Eva Nemčovská67%Sun 25 Oct
  107. Martin Mayoral Election Winner: Michal Uherčík51%Sun 25 Oct
  108. Highest temperature in Paris on October 19?: 15°C43%Mon 19 Oct
  109. Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 62-66%67%Sun 25 Oct
  110. Spread: Commanders (-13.5): 49ers96%Tue 20 Oct
  111. How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?: 976%Mon 19 Oct
  112. Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?: 40-45%52%Sun 25 Oct
  113. Serbia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!77%Sun 25 Oct
  114. AC Monza vs. Cagliari Calcio: AC Monza65%Mon 19 Oct
  115. Highest temperature in Milan on October 19?: 21°C49%Mon 19 Oct
  116. Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5): Coventry City FC74%Mon 19 Oct
  117. Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 19?: 31°C53%Mon 19 Oct
  118. Highest temperature in Singapore on October 19?: 33°C66%Mon 19 Oct
  119. British Columbia General Election: 2nd Place: NDP86%Sat 24 Oct
  120. Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 19?: 10°C70%Mon 19 Oct
  121. Bratislava Mayoral Election Winner: Matúš Vallo94%Sun 25 Oct
  122. Highest temperature in Busan on October 19?: 24°C66%Mon 19 Oct
  123. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 20?: No99%Tue 20 Oct
  124. Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No90%Tue 20 Oct
  125. Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score: Yes81%Tue 20 Oct
  126. White House # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?: did not happen94%Tue 20 Oct
  127. Highest temperature in Lucknow on October 19?: 31°C60%Mon 19 Oct
  128. Highest temperature in Munich on October 20?: 12°C37%Tue 20 Oct
  129. Guangzhou: Saba Purtseladze vs Khumoyun Sultanov: Khumoyun Sultanov100%Mon 26 Oct
  130. Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 21?: No96%Thu 22 Oct
  131. Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?: Yes87%Fri 23 Oct
  132. Žilina Mayoral Election Winner: Peter Fiabáne76%Sun 25 Oct
  133. Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: Al Hilal Saudi Club76%Mon 19 Oct
  134. Real Madrid CF vs. RB Leipzig: Real Madrid CF69%Wed 21 Oct
  135. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?: No90%Sat 24 Oct
  136. UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card): Movsar Evloev51%Sun 25 Oct
  137. Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 19?: 19°C51%Mon 19 Oct
  138. Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Andrey Gyurov87%Sun 25 Oct
  139. Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5): Paris Saint-Germain FC78%Tue 20 Oct
  140. September Inflation UK - Annual: 3.1-3.3%74%Wed 21 Oct
  141. Highest temperature in Atlanta on October 20?: 76-77°F46%Tue 20 Oct
  142. Sabah FK vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund84%Tue 20 Oct
  143. Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 19?: 26°C62%Mon 19 Oct
  144. Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 24: Patient Zero - Taylor Swift89%Wed 21 Oct
  145. Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?: No97%Sun 25 Oct
  146. Trenčín Mayoral Election Winner: Ján Forgáč92%Sun 25 Oct
  147. Highest temperature in Chicago on October 19?: 68-69°F55%Mon 19 Oct
  148. Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK: Aston Villa FC88%Wed 21 Oct
  149. S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?: Up88%Mon 19 Oct
  150. Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory: United Serbia 10%+28%Sun 25 Oct
  151. Highest temperature in Taipei on October 19?: 35°C74%Mon 19 Oct
  152. LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage: Gen.G80%Fri 23 Oct
  153. Ningbo Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Han Shi: Sorana Cirstea70%Mon 26 Oct
  154. Highest temperature in Shenzhen on October 19?: 31°C61%Mon 19 Oct
  155. Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 20?: 21°C51%Tue 20 Oct
  156. Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 19?: 14°C49%Mon 19 Oct
  157. Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  158. Highest temperature in Miami on October 19?: 84-85°F59%Mon 19 Oct
  159. Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 19?: 23°C43%Mon 19 Oct
  160. Highest temperature in Toronto on October 19?: 20°C52%Mon 19 Oct
  161. Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC - Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 2 - 0 Coventry City FC19%Mon 19 Oct
  162. Košice Region Governor Election Winner: Rastislav Trnka73%Sun 25 Oct
  163. Highest temperature in Helsinki on October 19?: 10°C56%Mon 19 Oct
  164. Rams vs. Raiders: O/U 54.5: Under69%Sun 25 Oct
  165. Highest temperature in Manila on October 19?: 32°C42%Mon 19 Oct
  166. Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on October 19?: 33°C69%Mon 19 Oct
  167. Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?: No96%Sat 24 Oct
  168. Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 24: did not happen76%Wed 21 Oct
  169. AS Roma vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: AS Roma79%Tue 20 Oct
  170. Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Liquid (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs: Liquid56%Mon 19 Oct
  171. Trnava Region Governor Election Winner: Jozef Viskupič99%Sun 25 Oct
  172. Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 19?: 19°C44%Mon 19 Oct
  173. Highest temperature in Ankara on October 19?: 14°C51%Mon 19 Oct
  174. FC Porto vs. PSV: FC Porto58%Tue 20 Oct
  175. Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election: Gadi Eisenkot55%Sun 25 Oct
  176. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco: Lula99%Mon 26 Oct
  177. Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 19?: 35°C59%Mon 19 Oct
  178. Almaty Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Aleksandar Vukic: Adrian Mannarino62%Mon 26 Oct
  179. Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner: Kevin Acton80%Sun 25 Oct
  180. Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 19?: 19°C65%Mon 19 Oct
  181. Highest temperature in Madrid on October 19?: 14°C47%Mon 19 Oct
  182. Highest temperature in London on October 19?: 14°C50%Mon 19 Oct
  183. Highest temperature in Denver on October 19?: 70-71°F54%Mon 19 Oct
  184. Celtics vs. Pistons: Celtics52%Tue 20 Oct
  185. Highest temperature in NYC on October 19?: 64-65°F55%Mon 19 Oct
  186. Highest temperature in Austin on October 19?: 78-79°F54%Mon 19 Oct
  187. Counter-Strike: BIG vs PRIVATE (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs: BIG69%Mon 19 Oct
  188. Highest temperature in Houston on October 19?: 78-79°F49%Mon 19 Oct
  189. Warriors vs. Lakers: Lakers73%Thu 22 Oct
  190. Highest temperature in Dallas on October 19?: 76-77°F49%Mon 19 Oct
  191. Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 99 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes96%Mon 19 Oct
  192. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in São Paulo: Flavio Bolsonaro98%Mon 26 Oct
  193. Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: Yes97%Mon 19 Oct
  194. Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha: Fenerbahçe SK70%Tue 20 Oct
  195. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Goiás: Flavio Bolsonaro99%Mon 26 Oct
  196. Almaty Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Facundo Acosta: Thiago Agustin Tirante74%Mon 26 Oct
  197. SC Braga vs. Gil Vicente FC: SC Braga61%Mon 19 Oct
  198. Trabzonspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Trabzonspor71%Mon 19 Oct
  199. Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 19?: 21°C83%Mon 19 Oct
  200. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?: Yes56%Mon 26 Oct
  201. Fukushima Governor Election Winner: Masao Uchibori94%Mon 26 Oct
  202. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: did not happen99%Mon 26 Oct
  203. Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC69%Sat 24 Oct
  204. Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?: No96%Wed 21 Oct
  205. LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs: Galions51%Thu 22 Oct
  206. Highest temperature in Karachi on October 19?: 38°C49%Mon 19 Oct
  207. Acre governor election: Mailza Assis97%Sun 25 Oct
  208. Will "Street Fighter" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No95%Mon 19 Oct
  209. Test Match: South Africa vs Australia: Draw44%Sun 25 Oct
  210. Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris FC: Racing Club de Lens55%Sat 24 Oct
  211. How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?: 170-18937%Mon 26 Oct
  212. Espírito Santo Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Pazolini 10-15%48%Mon 26 Oct
  213. Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score: Yes56%Wed 21 Oct
  214. Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 20?: 35°C46%Tue 20 Oct
  215. Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 19?: 26°C76%Mon 19 Oct
  216. Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Chelsea FC61%Sat 24 Oct
  217. Košice Mayoral Election Winner: Ladislav Lörinc73%Sun 25 Oct
  218. Valorant: Team Liquid Brazil vs Gentle Mates GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs: Team Liquid Brazil63%Sat 24 Oct
  219. Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid64%Mon 19 Oct
  220. Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner: Margareta Dovgal51%Sun 25 Oct
  221. Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Vicentinho 4%+48%Mon 26 Oct
  222. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio de Janeiro: Flavio Bolsonaro98%Mon 26 Oct
  223. Counter-Strike: 9INE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs: UNiTY esports51%Mon 19 Oct
  224. Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on October 22?: Yes99%Thu 22 Oct
  225. Democratic Senate odds on October 23?: 62-64%44%Fri 23 Oct
  226. Trump approval rating on October 23?: 38.5–38.938%Sat 24 Oct
  227. Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Aziz 15%+59%Mon 26 Oct
  228. Banská Bystrica Mayoral Election Winner: did not happen70%Sun 25 Oct
  229. Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  230. Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  231. Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 19?: 80-81°F42%Mon 19 Oct
  232. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rondônia: Flavio Bolsonaro98%Mon 26 Oct
  233. Federal District Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: Celina 20-25%50%Mon 26 Oct
  234. CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano: Draw (CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano)65%Mon 19 Oct
  235. Highest temperature in Moscow on October 19?: 10°C43%Mon 19 Oct
  236. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Roraima: Flavio Bolsonaro98%Mon 26 Oct
  237. LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage: Dplus KIA55%Sat 24 Oct
  238. Will the price of Solana be above $115 on October 20?: No96%Tue 20 Oct
  239. Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Bahia: Lula98%Mon 26 Oct
  240. Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: Brentford FC70%Sun 25 Oct
  241. Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 152.5: Under51%Tue 20 Oct
  242. Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026?: Yes88%Fri 23 Oct
  243. Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 19?: 23°C37%Mon 19 Oct
  244. Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?: No84%Wed 21 Oct
  245. Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Kostadin Kostadinov94%Sun 25 Oct
  246. LoL: LOS vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage: T188%Sat 24 Oct
  247. Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No79%Tue 20 Oct
  248. Spread: Lakers (-8.5): Warriors55%Thu 22 Oct
  249. Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diane Parry: Alexandra Eala74%Mon 26 Oct
  250. Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory: did not happen96%Mon 26 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within seven days, then reported as though they already had.