AHEAD OF PRINT

The week ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 27 September 2026
Edition of Sunday, 4 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 27 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within seven days — by Sunday, 4 October 2026.

Politics

Flávio Bolsonaro won presidency as PL dominated senate and governors

The party also secured governorships in six states.

50% certain
lead market 50%next 41%1 venuesettles Fri 2 Oct

Flávio Bolsonaro was elected president of Brazil in the 2026 vote. The Liberal Party (PL) emerged as the largest bloc in the senate. The party also secured governorships in several key states.

Bolsonaro's victory followed his second-place finish in the first round of voting. He defeated the remaining contenders in the runoff held earlier in October.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro54%Sun 4 Oct
  2. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  3. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro78%Sun 4 Oct
  4. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  5. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic97%Wed 30 Sept
  6. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  7. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  8. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  9. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro50%Fri 2 Oct
  10. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  11. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  12. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  13. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL96%Sun 4 Oct
  14. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo99%Sun 4 Oct
  15. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  17. "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office: 19-22m56%Sun 27 Sept
  18. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  19. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco74%Sun 4 Oct
  20. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic95%Thu 1 Oct
  21. Second-best AI Lab end of September?: Google90%Wed 30 Sept
  22. Will Opus 5.5 get nerfed within a week of launch?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  24. "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office: 17-20m89%Sun 27 Sept
  25. Piauí Governor Election Winner: Rafael Fonteles98%Sun 4 Oct
  26. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic97%Thu 1 Oct
  27. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  28. Central Bank of Colombia decision in September: No change82%Thu 1 Oct
  29. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  30. "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office: 13-16m63%Sun 27 Sept
  31. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite87%Sun 4 Oct
  32. #1 Box Office This Weekend?: Avengers: Endgame Encore96%Sun 27 Sept
  33. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI95%Thu 1 Oct
  34. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  35. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado80%Sun 4 Oct
  36. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  37. Goiás Senate Election: 2nd Place: Gustavo Gayer70%Sun 4 Oct
  38. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  39. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place: Aécio Neves51%Sun 4 Oct
  40. Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place: Benedita da Silva63%Sun 4 Oct
  41. Amazonas Governor Election Winner: Omar Aziz56%Sun 4 Oct
  42. Federal District Governor Election Winner: Celina Leão94%Sun 4 Oct
  43. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  44. Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?: No50%Wed 30 Sept
  45. "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office: 25-28m88%Sun 27 Sept
  46. Will Brazil approve Daniel Perez as U.S. ambassador before its 2026 presidential election?: No87%Sat 3 Oct
  47. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  48. Brazil 2026 Election: Will the U.S. impose new Global Magnitsky sanctions on a Brazilian before the elections?: No78%Sat 3 Oct
  49. Amapá Governor Election Winner: Dr. Furlan55%Sun 4 Oct
  50. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  51. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  52. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  53. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  55. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes89%Fri 2 Oct
  56. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  57. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  58. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  59. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  60. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  61. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  62. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  63. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  64. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  65. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  66. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  67. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  68. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  69. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  70. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  71. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  72. Will Xi Jinping safely return to China after visiting the US?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  73. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  74. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  75. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  76. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  77. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  78. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  79. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Xiaomi86%Wed 30 Sept
  80. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA99%Thu 1 Oct
  81. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 27?: Yes95%Sun 27 Sept
  82. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  83. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  84. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026?: Yes99%Mon 28 Sept
  85. MLB: Runs Leader: Pete Crow-Armstrong93%Mon 28 Sept
  86. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 200.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC: No94%Mon 28 Sept
  87. Clarity Act will pass in September: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  88. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  90. Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  92. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  93. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  94. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No79%Wed 30 Sept
  96. MLB: RBIs Leader: Alec Burleson76%Mon 28 Sept
  97. Germany vs. Greece: Germany73%Sun 27 Sept
  98. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  100. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  102. Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes59%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  107. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?: 950 - 960m99%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  110. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  111. MLB: Batting Average Leader: Yordan Alvarez90%Mon 28 Sept
  112. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  113. Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?: 160-17952%Tue 29 Sept
  114. MLB: ERA Leader: Seth Lugo5%Mon 28 Sept
  115. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  116. Belgium vs. France: France52%Mon 28 Sept
  117. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  118. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?: Yes50%Mon 28 Sept
  119. Spread: Lions (-6.5): Lions59%Sun 27 Sept
  120. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  121. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  122. Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  123. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  124. Serbia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands70%Sun 27 Sept
  125. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  126. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  128. Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  129. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  130. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  131. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes97%Thu 1 Oct
  132. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No77%Sat 3 Oct
  133. Will any team have 5 out of 25 riders at the front of the 2026 UCI World Championship Road Race (Men Elite): No58%Sun 27 Sept
  134. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  135. Spread: Bills (-7.5): Chargers59%Sun 27 Sept
  136. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  137. Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5: Over65%Sun 27 Sept
  138. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  139. Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  140. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  141. Spread: Chiefs (-10.5): Dolphins58%Sun 27 Sept
  142. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  143. Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  144. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  145. Panthers vs. Browns: Panthers56%Sun 27 Sept
  146. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  147. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  148. Spread: Seahawks (-7.5): Seahawks57%Sun 27 Sept
  149. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No100%Wed 30 Sept
  150. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No90%Wed 30 Sept
  151. Spread: 49ers (-8.5): Cardinals62%Sun 27 Sept
  152. Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  153. Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Chiefs66%Sun 27 Sept
  154. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  155. Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  156. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  157. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  158. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  159. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No64%Wed 30 Sept
  160. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 180-19923%Fri 2 Oct
  161. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  162. Spread: Bengals (-3.5): Steelers61%Sun 27 Sept
  163. Swiss federal Neutrality Initiative passes: No93%Tue 29 Sept
  164. Jets vs. Lions: Lions64%Sun 27 Sept
  165. Trump renames AI by September 30?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  166. Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  167. Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  168. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  169. Spread: Serbia (-2.5): Netherlands98%Sun 27 Sept
  170. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes69%Thu 1 Oct
  171. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  172. Spread: Panthers (-2.5): Browns61%Sun 27 Sept
  173. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  174. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  175. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes81%Thu 1 Oct
  176. Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  177. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  178. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Norway vs. Portugal: Norway67%Sun 27 Sept
  180. Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  181. Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  182. Will Solana dip to $90 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  184. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS97%Sun 4 Oct
  185. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC: No94%Mon 28 Sept
  186. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $75 before Sep 27?: No93%Sun 27 Sept
  187. Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  189. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  190. Spread: Cowboys (-3.5): Ravens77%Sun 27 Sept
  191. Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  192. Chengdu Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Nikoloz Basilashvili: Nikoloz Basilashvili87%Sun 4 Oct
  193. Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  195. Patriots vs. Jaguars: Jaguars58%Sun 27 Sept
  196. Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  198. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  199. Will hello-lume ship a robot by the end of September 2026: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  200. Will XRP dip to $1.00 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  201. Spread: Giants (-7.5): Titans60%Sun 27 Sept
  202. Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]: No74%Tue 29 Sept
  203. 3rd Largest Company end of September?: Alphabet99%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Bengals vs. Steelers: Bengals56%Sun 27 Sept
  205. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  206. Eagles vs. Bears: Eagles62%Tue 29 Sept
  207. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  208. Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  209. Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  210. Ravens vs. Cowboys: Ravens57%Sun 27 Sept
  211. What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?: $1.153M - $1.169M76%Wed 30 Sept
  212. Titans vs. Giants: O/U 38.5: Under59%Sun 27 Sept
  213. Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  215. Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?: No74%Thu 1 Oct
  217. Chargers vs. Bills: Bills66%Sun 27 Sept
  218. Spread: Ravens (-3.5): Cowboys56%Sun 27 Sept
  219. 2nd Largest Company end of September?: Apple98%Wed 30 Sept
  220. Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 21-27?: No78%Mon 28 Sept
  221. Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 September 21-27?: No98%Mon 28 Sept
  222. Pedri in Ballon d'Or top 10 in 2026?: No98%Tue 29 Sept
  223. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  224. Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5: Under60%Sun 27 Sept
  225. Texans vs. Colts: Texans59%Sun 27 Sept
  226. Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  227. Israel vs. Republic of Ireland: Republic of Ireland70%Sun 27 Sept
  228. Spread: Greece (-2.5): Germany98%Sun 27 Sept
  229. Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  230. Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5: Over57%Sun 27 Sept
  231. Trump meets with Putin by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  232. Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?: 880-91935%Thu 1 Oct
  233. Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?: No99%Fri 2 Oct
  234. Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  235. Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2: Mayweather51%Sun 4 Oct
  236. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  237. China PR vs. Turkmenistan: Draw (China PR vs. Turkmenistan)72%Fri 2 Oct
  238. Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Alibaba91%Thu 1 Oct
  239. Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September: 25 bps increase98%Tue 29 Sept
  240. Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by September 3097%Thu 1 Oct
  241. Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 82.5 games this season?: No98%Mon 28 Sept
  242. Spread: Texans (-2.5): Colts60%Sun 27 Sept
  243. Will SpaceX Crew-13 launch by September 30, 2026?: No99%Mon 28 Sept
  244. Spread: Vikings (-1.5): Buccaneers55%Sun 27 Sept
  245. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?: No100%Wed 30 Sept
  246. Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  247. Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  248. Vikings vs. Buccaneers: Vikings52%Sun 27 Sept
  249. Spread: Steelers (-3.5): Bengals78%Sun 27 Sept
  250. Spread: Raiders (-3.5): Saints60%Sun 27 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within seven days, then reported as though they already had.